The modern Middle Eastern security architecture has entered a stage of deep systemic crisis, where diplomacy increasingly resembles a screen for tactical regrouping of forces. The White House’s new attempt to fix the de-escalation in relations with Tehran has found itself under direct threat of disruption due to a series of coordinated military incidents in the Persian and Oman Gulfs. Another mutual exchange of missile strikes between CENTCOM units and Iranian military structures clearly demonstrates the basic problem of the current moment: the political will to compromise in Washington and the real geopolitical interests of Tehran are in parallel, incompatible planes.
The escalation reached a critical point after the US attempted to severely block the logistics routes of Iranian commercial shipping and subsequent strikes on facilities on the island of Qeshm. Tehran immediately activated its favorite asymmetric tools – direct missile attacks and the use of kamikaze drones against American military infrastructure in Bahrain (where the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet is stationed), as well as strikes in the Gulf of Oman. Even though most of the weapons are intercepted by integrated air defense systems, the very fact of regular direct fire contact completely negates the optimistic statements of the US State Department about the “imminence of a nuclear deal.”
The crisis of diplomatic tools and the Iranian strategy of the “undivided front”
An analysis of the current American strategy points to a clear conceptual miscalculation by Washington, which is trying to divide the complex Middle East equation into isolated tracks. Mark Rubio’s team is betting on isolating the Iranian nuclear program and concluding a separate tactical truce directly between the United States and Iran. However, Tehran operates within a completely different paradigm, which was clearly voiced by Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi: any agreement is comprehensive and automatically extends to all proxy groups in the region, including Lebanon.
For the Iranian leadership, abandoning cross-border influence and the concept of an “axis of resistance” would mean a capitulation that the regime would not accept even under the threat of increased sanctions or direct pressure. Moreover, Tehran is well aware of the domestic political vulnerability of the White House, where Donald Trump is forced to balance between election promises to “end the wars” and tough military actions by Israel, which is not interested in preserving the Iranian threat. Public disputes between Washington and the government of Benjamin Netanyahu over the advisability of resuming the bombing of Beirut only confirm the lack of a single strategic line within the Western coalition, which gives Iran additional room for maneuver.
Global economic and security metastases of the conflict
The direct consequence of this political impasse is the destabilization of global markets. The Strait of Hormuz remains the main “artery” of the world’s energy balance, and any threat to commercial shipping in this hub instantly pushes WTI oil prices to $100 per barrel. This sets off a chain reaction for the global economy, where inflationary risks force leading central banks to keep interest rates high, slowing the recovery of production.
For Ukraine, this conflict carries specific risks of a military and political nature:
The prolonged and intense escalation around Iran inevitably strains the scarce resources of Western air defense/missile systems and limits the financial focus of the United States. When American forces are forced to intercept ballistic missiles in the Gulf every day and defend bases in Bahrain or Kuwait, the Pentagon prioritizes its own supplies and logistics in the Middle East, which creates natural risks for the pace and volume of military-technical assistance in the European theater of operations.
Ultimately, the situation around Iran demonstrates that the era of local conventional agreements is over. As long as Washington tries to untie the Middle East knot with temporary compromises without eliminating the fundamental causes of Iranian expansionism, the Strait of Hormuz will remain a trigger capable of collapsing global stability at any moment.